Looking ahead at BG-12 – possibly the next oral medication for Multiple Sclerosis

Biogen presented positive data for its oral MS drug BG-12 last fall and plans to file for approval in the U.S. this year. In Phase III trials, the drug showed a 44-51% cut in relapse rates. The strong showing suggests the drug could capture market share from Teva’s (TEVA) Copaxone, which had $1.02 billion in Q3 sales – up 26% year over year – and Novartis’ (NVS) Gilenya, which had 9 month sales of $291 million through Q3 2011. Both of these drugs price between $40-50,000; suggesting BG-12 will be a high priced drug too. With Avonex sales flattening and Tysabri risks remaining, BG-12 is an important drug, which could reignite sales and stabilize Biogen’s MS market share.

But, BG-12 isn’t the only late stage drug with upside. Later in 2012, we’ll get updates on hemophilia factor VIII and factor IX treatments, which are in Phase III trials. And, we’ll also get data on Dexpramipexole, in phase III for ALS treatment, later this year too. These treatments offer significant opportunity to expand the company’s footprint, particularly in ALS where treatments are lacking and survival is limited to five years from diagnosis.

Biogen is using the substantial cash flow from Avonex and Tysabri to advance these late stage medicines, while rebuilding its early stage program. At the same time, it’s returning cash to shareholders through its 20 million share buyback, approved last February. Unlike fledgling biotech plays, such as Pharmasset (VRUS) and Inhibitex Inc. (INHX), both of which were recently acquired for robust premiums, Biogen’s franchise is proven.

Information for this article was found here